How it works

What ForgeAsset does

ForgeAsset is a financial model for Tesla V4 Supercharger investments in California. The wizard asks about the site (address, stalls, host type), the capex and financing structure, the revenue assumptions (utilization ramp, retail price, LCFS), and the tax profile. The deterministic engine returns the headline metrics (NPV, IRR, payback, cash-on-cash), a 15-year cash flow, sensitivity, and the conditions that must be true for the deal to pencil.

The free tier returns the most important headline numbers. The $149 underwriting report unlocks every section — the report is the artifact you bring to a CPA or a lender.

The engine is deterministic. Same inputs in, same outputs out. No LLM produces a number. The AI Analyst (Pro tier) is an explanation layer; it can re-run the engine when you change an input but cannot invent values.

How the engine works

The engine is a Python module that mirrors a polished Excel model cell-for-cell. The Excel model was built first for a personal investment workup and validated against PG&E's BEV2-S tariff, IRS bonus depreciation schedules, CARB's LCFS data, the Santa Clara County BPP rules, and the 30C ITC sunset.

Every populated cell in the spreadsheet has a regression test in the engine's test suite. The engine is the proven xlsx replacement — same numbers, no Excel needed.

Full data-source citations with effective dates live on the methodology page.

What's in the underwriting report

Thirteen fixed sections. Same content in the interactive web view and the watermarked PDF. The web view loads in under two seconds; the PDF is investor-grade A4/Letter, downloadable, and watermarked with your email on every page.

Every report contains these sections, computed from your inputs. Run your site to see your own numbers.

  1. Section 1

    Cover page

    Site, date, prepared-for.

  2. Section 2

    Executive Summary

    The headline metrics — payback, NPV, IRR, cash-on-cash, upfront capital — framed as model output, not a recommendation.

  3. Section 3

    What Must Be True

    The three threshold conditions the result depends on.

  4. Section 4

    Site & Assumption Snapshot

    Every input you entered, sourced.

  5. Section 5

    Revenue Build

    Utilization ramp, $/kWh, LCFS, Y1–Y15 revenue.

  6. Section 6

    Cost Stack

    Electricity (energy + demand), Tesla network fee, fixed ops, taxes.

  7. Section 7

    Cash Flow Model

    Year 1 by month, then Y1–Y15 by year.

  8. Section 8

    Sensitivity Analysis

    Tornado of the top drivers plus the supporting matrices.

  9. Section 9

    Scenario Comparison

    Conservative / Expected / Optimistic side by side.

  10. Section 10

    Required-To-Succeed

    The minimum retail price, utilization, LCFS, and max escalations.

  11. Section 11

    Risk Register

    The modeled risks, ranked by severity × probability.

  12. Section 12

    What To Verify

    A neutral checklist of facts to confirm against the real world.

  13. Section 13

    Appendix

    Methodology, formula references, and the full disclaimer.

What we don't do

  • ·Residential / home-charging calculators — this model is for the commercial Supercharger-for-Business asset.
  • ·Tax filing, legal docs, deal matching, fund vehicles — explicitly not built.

Ready to run your numbers?

Free, eight minutes — a free account shows your results.