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Tesla Supercharger ROI in California

California is the largest and most established Supercharger market in the country, and its economics are shaped by three things no other state combines at this scale: a Low Carbon Fuel Standard that pays public chargers a per-kWh credit, a CPUC rate structure that has deliberately reshaped commercial EV demand charges, and a dense stack of build-out subsidies. ForgeAsset models the three investor-owned utilities — PG&E (BEV-2-S), SCE (TOU-EV-9), and SDG&E (EV-HP) — against California's tax stack, with the LCFS credit as a modeled revenue line.

What makes California economics distinct

A carbon-credit revenue line on every kilowatt-hour

Under the LCFS, a public DC fast charger earns credits on the electricity it dispenses. Credit prices strengthened through early 2026 (weekly averages around $70 per credit, up materially year over year), and CARB's November 2024 amendments accelerated the carbon-intensity targets and added an auto-acceleration mechanism from 2027 that tightens benchmarks if the credit bank stays oversupplied. The model carries LCFS as a revenue line, net of the aggregator's cut, and it is editable.

Demand charges were restructured, not just capped

The single largest cost risk for a low-utilization DC fast charger is the demand charge. California's CPUC reshaped it across all three utilities — SCE's commercial EV rate has run energy-only since 2019 under a multi-year phase-in, with SDG&E and PG&E carrying their own EV-specific designs. The result is that the modeled SCE tariff carries no demand charge at all, and the PG&E and SDG&E designs use subscription blocks rather than a raw per-kW peak.

A live, refilling incentive pipeline

California funds build-out from its own Clean Transportation Program and cap-and-trade proceeds, separate from federal money. A fresh CALeVIP round for DC fast charging (announced May 2026, over $55 million) opens application windows in late 2026 and early 2027, layered on top of the state's roughly $384 million federal NEVI allocation administered by Caltrans and the Energy Commission.

The most competitive siting market in the network

California hosts the network's largest and fastest-growing Supercharger sites — Barstow's 120-stall site and Firebaugh's expansion toward 300-plus stalls sit on the I-5 and I-15/I-40 freight corridors. High corridor traffic supports utilization; it also means site scarcity and build competition are real inputs to any California scenario.

Utilities and tariffs modeled in California

Utility & tariffEnergyDemand
PG&E BEV-2-S13.3¢/kWh–37.0¢/kWh by time of day$95.56/mo per 50 kW block
SDG&E EV-HP14.8¢/kWh–33.6¢/kWh by time of day$127.71/mo per 25 kW block
SCE TOU-EV-914.4¢/kWh–46.2¢/kWh by time of daynone

Rates are digit-verified against each utility's own filed sheets and update within two weeks of any revision. Full derivations are on the methodology page.

California tax profile

  • Sales tax on hardware: 9.38%
  • Business personal property tax: 1.2% of equipment value (example rate)
  • Clean-fuels credit: 6.0¢/kWh modeled revenue line
  • Per-kWh charging excise: none

California tax defaults applied: LCFS credit revenue, CA LLC costs, Santa Clara County sales-tax and BPP rates. County-level rates vary — the sales-tax and property-tax fields are editable in later steps.

California programs and incentives

LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) — CARB

A public DC fast charger generates credits under the Fast Charging Infrastructure pathway; the equipment owner may generate them or assign the rights to an aggregator. Public stations must be accessible 24 hours a day to qualify. Modeled as a revenue line at the CARB dashboard price, net of aggregator share.

CALeVIP / Fast Charge California — CEC

State DC fast-charging incentive covering up to 100% of eligible installation cost, capped per port (around $100,000 in the first announced 2026 window, $55,000 in the second), with priority for tribal, disadvantaged, and low-income community sites and a ready-to-build requirement.

NEVI (federal, California-administered)

Roughly $384 million over five years, administered by Caltrans and the CEC along the state's alternative-fuel corridors; each funded station carries at least four 150 kW connectors.

California charging market

California carries the largest Supercharger footprint in the country — roughly 660 stations — concentrated on the I-5, I-80, and I-15/I-40 corridors, alongside the network's flagship high-stall sites. The state's own LCFS and CALeVIP programs run separately from federal NEVI money, and NEVI solicitation rounds reopened in 2026 after a federal court lifted an earlier funding freeze.

California Supercharger ROI — questions

Does California tax public EV charging per kilowatt-hour?
No per-kWh state tax on public EV charging is enacted or actively pending in California as of mid-2026. California's active legislative track is a mileage-based road-usage-charge study, which is a vehicle-owner fee rather than a charging-transaction tax.
Which California utilities does the model cover?
The three investor-owned utilities: Pacific Gas & Electric (BEV-2-S), Southern California Edison (TOU-EV-9), and San Diego Gas & Electric (EV-HP). Municipal utilities such as LADWP and SMUD are named on address resolution but are not in the tariff library.
How is the LCFS credit modeled?
As a per-kWh revenue line at a default price drawn from the CARB LCFS data dashboard, net of a typical aggregator share, and editable in the wizard. It is a modeled estimate, not a guaranteed price.

Sources

Model a Tesla V4 Supercharger site in California — payback, NPV, IRR, and a 15-year cash flow from your own inputs.

Run a California scenario

Other states: North Carolina, Georgia, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, Texas, Virginia, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee. Coverage spans twelve states in total — see the full list.

ForgeAsset is software, not investment, tax, or legal advice — outputs are model estimates from your inputs, not guarantees. Rates and programs current as of research; verify current terms with each source before committing capital.