What it actually costs to host a Tesla Supercharger: the full cost stack

Most public discussion of Tesla's Supercharger for Business program focuses on two numbers: what the hardware costs and what drivers pay per kWh. A site's economics are decided by a much longer list. This post walks through every cost line the ForgeAsset underwriting engine models, in the order they hit the cash flow statement. Nothing here is advice — it is a description of what the model computes and where each line comes from.

Upfront: the CAPEX stack#

Four lines make up total CAPEX in the model:

1. Hardware per stall. The dispenser and its share of the power cabinet.
2. Install per stall. Trenching, conduit, concrete, switchgear, and labor. On many sites install rivals or exceeds the hardware line.
3. Utility upgrade. What the utility charges to bring sufficient capacity to the property — a transformer, service drop, or line extension. This line varies from roughly zero to six figures depending on what is already at the site, which is why the model treats it as its own input rather than folding it into install.
4. Contingency. A percentage applied to the subtotal above, because construction estimates move between bid and completion.

A one-time sales tax on the hardware purchase lands in month 1 of the cash flow, and if the project is financed, the loan's down payment — not total CAPEX — is what leaves the bank on day one.

Every month: electricity under PG&E's BEV-2 tariff#

Electricity is the largest operating cost for most modeled sites, and its structure matters as much as its rate. The model uses PG&E's BEV-2 schedule, which replaces traditional demand charges with a monthly subscription: blocks of kW capacity priced per block, scaled to stall count × kW per stall. Energy on top of that is billed on time-of-use rates — cheaper overnight, most expensive in the late-afternoon peak.

Two details in the model surprise people:

• The energy loss factor. The utility meter reads more kWh than vehicles receive; conversion and cabling losses sit between them. The model bills the site for metered kWh but earns revenue only on dispensed kWh.
• Escalation. Energy and subscription costs escalate annually in the model — a compounding line that a flat-rate estimate misses entirely.

Every month: the fixed stack#

These lines run whether the site dispenses one kWh or ten thousand:

The Tesla network fee — a per-kWh charge for operating on the Supercharger network — is variable rather than fixed, and the model applies it to every dispensed kWh.

What offsets the costs#

The cost stack is one half of the ledger. The model also computes the offsets, each with its own timing:

• The federal 30C ITC, a one-time credit against the project's tax basis, subject to eligibility and a statutory sunset date.
• Depreciation, valued as tax-shield cash inflows at the owner's marginal rate — with usability that depends on the IRS §469 material-participation tests, which is why every report carries a note on that subject.
• LCFS credits (California), earned per dispensed kWh for the program's crediting window, net of an aggregator's commission.
• Grants, where a program applies, modeled with their actual disbursement month rather than as day-one cash.

Why the full list matters#

A site that looks profitable on a hardware-plus-electricity estimate can model out negative once the subscription blocks, rent escalation, BPP tax, and the network fee are on the ledger — and a site that looks marginal can model out positive once the ITC and LCFS timing are in. The engine's job is to put all of these lines on one 15-year statement so the result reflects the whole stack, not the two most visible numbers.

The methodology page lists every data source, with citations and effective dates. To see the full stack computed for a specific address, stall count, and set of assumptions, the scenario wizard runs the same engine described here.

All figures a scenario produces are model projections under user-supplied assumptions, not guarantees or advice. Tariffs, incentives, and costs change; verify current values against the cited sources before relying on any number.